In Germany, precisely Berlin, there’s a severe egg shortage. On the left you can see the extent of that which shows you shelves that are normally fully stocked with eggs, now remaining empty.

Turns out this isn’t news and seems to have been going on for some time now:

In the same article, they claim that egg prices are up 25% since beginning of 2026.

To take a step back: how do eggs end up in supermarket shelves in the first place?

https://www.bmel-statistik.de/ernaehrung/versorgungsbilanzen/eier

The average German consumes around 252 eggs per year (~21 billion eggs total). Of those, 72% are “Made in Germany” while the remaining 28% are imported from other countries with the Netherlands (69% of imports), Poland (16%), Belgium (3.4%) being the main countries of import. 50% of this are sold directly to the end consumer as raw eggs whereas the other half is used for other products such as pasta or baked goods. The main input to making eggs of course is hens which Germany sports 51.1 million of (down 400k vs. 2024). Each hen makes on average 295 eggs a year (15.3bn total), four more than in 2024 (i.e. 1,2 days per egg). What I was previously ignorant of: 1) a hen lays unfertilised eggs as part of it’s “normal” reproductive cycle and doesn’t need to be fertilised to do so and 2) they usually lay eggs in clutches, i.e. they lay one egg per day for a few days straight then skip a day and continue.

At this point, we can put up a few hypotheses as to why we’re in a shortage:

1. We’re in a supply crunch:
   1. Avian Influenza is destroying productivity in Germany/Netherlands/Poland.
2. We’re in a demand high:
   1. People are eating more eggs for lifestyle reasons.
3. Or obviously a combination of the above.

From TISIS: number of Avian Influenza cases of domestic animals per year.

As it so happens, this year’s Avian influenza was causing outsized havoc. In Nov, 2025, Reuters reported “Germany’s bird flu cases at three-year high with ‘no relief in sight’”: the virus had been detected on 122 farms by November (up 2.7x from 2024). Avian influenza is a seasonal disease with outbreaks starting in ealry autumn rising until the end of the year and peaking in spring. As of November, this lead to more than a million hens culled (~2% of total population). From Nov, 2025 to end of Feb 2026 Germany saw 51 more outbreaks with 1.56 million birds affected. In Poland, spring alone saw culling of ~11mn animals. Another infectious disease, the Newcastle disease apparently added to the issue.

From TISIS: avian influenza cases of domestic animals by month (Germany)

The following plot shows imports (with negligible exports) of eggs to Germany from the Netherlands and Poland with imports down for Netherlands and Poland down from last month although I would speculate that imports from the Netherlands are mostly consumed in western Germany and do not affect Berlin supply significantly.

From GENESIS-online: imports and exports of eggs (avg. egg weight estimated to be ~58g) from and to the two most relevant countries, Netherlands and Poland.

Month-over-month change of net shell egg imports by month

Net imports from the Netherlands are actually up on a 3-month rolling basis while polish net imports are down.

Now, onto domestic egg production. The most productive state as measured in million eggs is Niedersachsen (North West Germany) which makes it likely that Berlin and Brandenburg are importing from there.

At this point, my best hypothesis for the shortage is something like:

• Berlin imports from Poland and polish imports are down 11.7%.
• Farms delivering into Berlin had to cull hundreds of thousands of hens which can’t be made up on the spot (an outbreak leads to mandatory culling of all hens and chicken start laying eggs from 4.5 to 6 months old).